The stock price movements of Samsung Electronics, a leading South Korean company and a national stock, always attract significant attention. As we approach the second half of 2025, questions about the outlook for Samsung Electronics' stock price are growing amidst changing global economic conditions and the semiconductor market. As an investor who has observed Samsung Electronics' stock price trends for a long time, I will offer an in-depth analysis of the current outlook for Samsung Electronics' stock price and discuss future investment strategies.
Recently, Samsung Electronics announced results exceeding market expectations in the first quarter of 2025, signaling positive developments. It achieved record-high quarterly revenue of KRW 79.14 trillion and an operating profit of KRW 6.7 trillion on a consolidated basis. The Mobile eXperience (MX) division and the conventional memory business led the improvement in performance. However, the Device Solutions (DS) division was affected by decreased HBM (High Bandwidth Memory) sales and foundry losses.
The most important factor in the Samsung Electronics stock price outlook is the semiconductor market, particularly the dynamics of the memory semiconductor market. The rebound in memory prices, which began in the second half of 2024, is continuing into 2025, which is positive. The World Semiconductor Trade Statistics (WSTS) predicts that the global semiconductor market will grow by 11.2% year-on-year in 2025, with memory semiconductors driving growth.
The surge in demand for high-performance memory, specifically HBM, driven by advancements in AI (Artificial Intelligence) technology and the expansion of data center construction presents a significant opportunity for Samsung Electronics. Deloitte predicts that the generative AI chip market will exceed $150 billion in 2025, analyzing that AI chip demand will be the biggest driving force in the semiconductor market. Samsung Electronics is also strengthening its efforts in HBM development, and the certification and supply of its 12-stack HBM3E product will be a key variable in improving second-half performance.
Samsung Electronics' other major division, Mobile eXperience (MX), also impacts its stock price. In the first quarter of 2025, strong sales of the Galaxy S25 series resulted in favorable performance. Samsung Electronics plans to continue focusing on the spread of AI smartphones in 2025 and improve the Galaxy AI experience. However, the potential slowdown in smartphone demand due to a deepening global economic downturn and intensified competition in the low-to-mid-range market may pose challenges.
The Display Panel (SDC) division is expected to see improved performance thanks to the expansion of the foldable phone market and the acquisition of new clients. The Consumer Electronics (CE) division may also experience volatility depending on market demand.
Despite the positive outlook, several risk factors cannot be overlooked. First, the intensification of US-China tensions and changes in major countries' tariff policies are adding uncertainty to the semiconductor and set businesses. In particular, US tariffs could lead to price increases or increased costs for Samsung Electronics products, negatively impacting profitability.
Second, intensifying competition in the HBM market and changes in the relationship with major clients such as Nvidia are important variables. Delays in HBM certification or delays in securing a technological advantage over competitors could negatively impact performance and stock price. Third, the reduction of losses in the foundry business is crucial. It is essential to reduce losses by increasing capacity utilization and improving cost efficiency in the second half of the year after the weak performance in the first half.
Securities firms predict Samsung Electronics' annual operating profit in 2025 to be in the mid-to-high 30 trillion won range, with performance improving in the second half. However, due to the challenges and uncertainties in the semiconductor market until the first half, a cautious outlook also exists. As of early July, the second-quarter results are forthcoming, and some securities firms are forecasting that second-quarter performance might be lower than expected due to HBM weakness.
My experience investing in Samsung Electronics for an extended period has taught me to focus on long-term technological competitiveness and market dominance rather than short-term market fluctuations. The current semiconductor market is in a paradigm shift centered on AI, and Samsung Electronics' efforts to strengthen its competitiveness not only in memory but also in non-memory areas such as foundries and System LSI are positive. In particular, if the stabilization of the 2nm GAA process and the results of next-generation HBM development are confirmed, it could become a long-term driver of stock price growth.
Of course, in the short term, there may be volatility due to global macroeconomic uncertainties, geopolitical risks, and competition. However, I believe that such periods of adjustment can be buying opportunities from a long-term perspective. It is crucial to manage average purchase prices through a cost averaging strategy and to continuously monitor company announcements and market trends.
I believe that the Samsung Electronics stock price outlook in the second half of 2025 is likely to be better than the first half. The recovery of the memory market and increased demand related to AI are certainly positive factors. However, HBM competition, foundry performance, and external macroeconomic conditions must be carefully considered.
In conclusion, while I anticipate a gradual upward trend in Samsung Electronics' stock price in the second half of 2025, it's necessary to prepare for fluctuations due to unforeseen variables. Personally, I believe this is a time for a prudent investment approach, maintaining faith in long-term growth and avoiding short-term noise. Always make investment decisions carefully and make your own judgment based on a variety of information. https://www.samsung.com/global/investor/ (Samsung Electronics IR Website) https://news.joins.com/ (Related Economic News)
Q: What will be the most significant factor influencing Samsung Electronics' stock price in the second half of 2025?
* A: Increased demand for AI-related high-performance memory (HBM) and Samsung Electronics' HBM technological competitiveness, improvement in foundry profitability, and the global macroeconomic situation are expected to be key factors.
Q: Is Samsung Electronics currently undervalued?
* A: Opinions on target prices vary among securities firms, and valuations can change depending on market conditions and individual company performance. It is best to refer to reports from various securities firms and market analysis for your own judgment.
Q: Will the spread of AI smartphones positively affect Samsung Electronics' stock price?
* A: Yes, strong sales of flagship models with AI capabilities and the expansion of AI technology to low-to-mid-range models can contribute to improved sales and profitability in the mobile division, positively impacting the stock price.
Q: How significant will the impact of US tariff policies be?
* A: US tariff policies could affect Samsung Electronics' exports of semiconductors and set products, leading to weakened price competitiveness or increased costs. This is a risk factor that could burden profitability in the short term.
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