The recent death of Iran's Supreme Leader has sent massive ripples through an already unstable Middle East. As a major power in the region, internal changes in Iran inevitably impact neighboring countries and the international community as a whole. The Supreme Leader holds absolute authority in making final decisions on Iran's domestic and foreign policies, and his absence beyond a simple leadership change amplifies uncertainty across the entire state system. Currently, Iran has transitioned to an interim leadership structure, with an interim leadership council composed of the President, the head of the judiciary, and a member of the Assembly of Experts temporarily performing the duties of the Supreme Leader. This power vacuum in Iran is poised to become a significant variable reshaping the geopolitical landscape of the Middle East.
The process of succeeding Iran's Supreme Leader is conducted through the Assembly of Experts, comprised of 88 clerics, who must elect a new leader as soon as possible. However, the death of the Supreme Leader could signal the beginning of an internal power struggle. The March 2024 Assembly of Experts elections already saw numerous moderate and reformist candidates disqualified, leading to a dominance by hardliners, which increases the likelihood that the next leader will also be a hardliner. While some speculate about the deceased Supreme Leader's son as a potential successor, this could be perceived as "hereditary" by the Iranian public, provoking backlash. The potential expansion of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps' (IRGC) influence is also being raised. The absence of the Supreme Leader could provide an opportunity for the IRGC to fill the political void and strengthen its control, which would significantly impact the direction of Iran's domestic and foreign policies.
The death of the Supreme Leader could deepen instability within Iran. The large-scale anti-government protests and economic crises that occurred from late 2025 to early 2026 have already exposed cracks in Iranian society. The weakening of the middle class due to Western sanctions could negatively affect the stabilization of the political transition period, and the weakening of central authority carries the risk of exacerbating ethnic minority conflicts or the rise of regional armed groups. The long-standing confrontation between hardliners and reformists could also intensify. If the new leader fails to gain the consent of all political factions, internal divisions could deepen further. Such internal conflicts could lead to Iran's increased international isolation and a reinforcement of human rights abuses.
The death of Iran's Supreme Leader will have a profound impact on Middle East security. Iran has long supported regional proxy forces such as Hezbollah, the Houthi rebels, and Hamas, exerting pressure on the United States and Israel. The absence of the Supreme Leader could lead to changes in Iran's control over these regional networks, potentially accelerating a reshaping of power in the Middle East. Notably, after the 12-day war with Israel in 2025, Iran declared a new foreign policy stance of 'active and unprecedented deterrence,' which could further escalate regional tensions. Regional powers like Saudi Arabia and Turkey will be closely watching Iran's changes and seeking new power dynamics.
Iran's nuclear program has been a long-standing concern for the international community. With the failure of nuclear negotiation attempts in 2025 and 2026, the Supreme Leader's death adds uncertainty to the direction of the nuclear program. With UN sanctions reimposed in 2025 and nuclear facilities damaged during the Iran-Israel war, the stance of the new leadership remains unknown. The United States has stated it will not tolerate the rebuilding of Iran's nuclear program, and the International Atomic Energy Agency's (IAEA) verification activities also remain a crucial task. Iran's nuclear ambitions could trigger an arms race in the Middle East and threaten the international non-proliferation regime.
The leadership change in Iran will also influence the Middle East strategies of major powers such as the United States, China, and Russia. The U.S. will closely monitor the impact of Iran's instability on regional security and may seek new approaches to the activities of proxy forces and the nuclear program. Notably, after President Trump's re-election in 2025, nuclear negotiations with Iran resumed but failed, and in February 2026, the Supreme Leader died in an unprecedented event during a US-Israeli airstrike on Iran. This can be interpreted as a demonstration of the U.S.'s determination to thwart Iran's nuclear program and weaken its regional influence. China will be concerned about potential threats to its Middle Eastern energy supply routes and Belt and Road Initiative investments, while Russia will also feel the need to readjust its regional alliances and geopolitical influence. Iran's changes are likely to intensify the diplomatic and military competition among major powers surrounding the Middle East.
The death of Iran's Supreme Leader introduces unpredictable variables into the Middle East situation. The outcome of the internal power struggle, the foreign policy direction of the new leadership, and the future of Iran's nuclear program will have a profound impact on Middle East stability and international relations. Should internal instability in Iran worsen, it could ignite regional conflicts or amplify existing ones. The international community must closely observe Iran's power succession process and strengthen diplomatic efforts for regional peace and stability. Iran's future is closely linked to the future of the entire Middle East, requiring a deep understanding and cautious response to the unfolding situation.
Q1: How will the death of Iran's Supreme Leader affect Iran's foreign policy?
A1: As the Supreme Leader held the final decision-making authority for Iran's foreign policy, his death implies the possibility of policy changes. If the new leadership consists of hardliners, they might pursue more aggressive foreign policies, such as increased support for regional proxy forces or advancement of the nuclear program. Conversely, they might temporarily refrain from external provocations to focus on internal stability.
Q2: How does Iran's power succession process proceed?
A2: In the event of the Supreme Leader's death, according to the constitution, an interim leadership council composed of the President, the head of the judiciary, and a member of the Assembly of Experts will act as interim head. Subsequently, the Assembly of Experts, consisting of 88 clerics, will elect a new Supreme Leader as soon as possible.
Q3: How could Iran's internal instability affect the entire Middle East region?
A3: Iran's internal power vacuum and social instability could weaken its regional influence, or conversely, hardliners might instigate external conflicts to consolidate internal unity. This could heighten tensions with neighboring countries like Israel and Saudi Arabia, indirectly affect conflict zones such as Syria, Yemen, and Lebanon, and exacerbate overall regional security concerns.
Q4: What is the future of Iran's nuclear program?
A4: It could vary depending on the disposition of the new leadership. Hardliners might accelerate the advancement of the nuclear program, which could lead to further international sanctions and military pressure. However, the possibility of a more conciliatory stance on nuclear negotiations to alleviate economic hardship and international isolation cannot be ruled out.
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